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Democratic Governors Vulnerable
Gubernatorial Races In Garden State And Virginia Suggest Changing Winds
By JOE MURRAY, The Bulletin
In 2008 the world was his oyster. With the political winds at his back, President Barack Obama led the charge to recapture the White House and, thus, remove the last vestiges of the Republican leadership that had presided in Washington for most of this decade.
It was, so said the Beltway pundits, the dawn of a new day.
In his win over Republican John McCain, Washington insiders noted the ability of this young Illinois lawmaker to change the dynamic of the U.S. electoral map. While he solidified support in traditionally blue states, Mr. Obama moved his campaign into states that typically leaned red.
By the end of the 2008 election, Mr. Obama had wooed back Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, back into the Democratic fold. But Mr. Obama did not stop there.
In states like Nevada, McCain’s neighbor to the north, North Carolina and Indiana blue inroads were made it red states. As was the same in Virginia.
By November 5, 2008, many had thought a new political dynamic was born. Such a hope, as evidence b y the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Old Dominion, is proving to be false.
If Mr. Obama’s election ushered in a new day, conventional wisdom would suggest Democratic gubernatorial candidates would be comfortably in control; even more so in states Mr. Obama won during the recently held 2008 election. Polling data, however, suggests otherwise.
Take New Jersey, a long time bastion of liberal political strength. Mr. Obama easily won New Jersey in November, earning 57 percent of the vote to Mr. McCain’s 42. The state has long been a Democratic stronghold both nationally and state-wide, but fissures are appearing in the New Jersey’s Democratic foundation.
A new poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University found Mr. Obama’s approval ratings sinking in the Garden State. The 56 percent to 39 percent approval rating, while still respectable, is down from a 61 percent to 33 percent rating last month.
Even more troubling for the president is New Jersey’s Independent voters are split on Mr. Obama’s job performance. Less than half, 48 percent, approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance, while 45 percent disapprove.
“For President Barack Obama, the bloom is fading in the Garden State as his approval rating wilts,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The President still is on the positive side when we ask about his overall job approval and his grades for handling the economy. But the trend - and that’s what you always look at - is heading down.”
Mr. Obama’s souring approval rating is not the only problem facing New Jersey Democrats. Gov. Jon Corzine is trailing U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, the Republican challenger.
In a separate Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, pollsters found Mr. Christie leading Mr. Corzine among likely voters by a margin of 51 percent to 42 percent. The poll also found New Jersey voters, including Democrats, associate the state’s Democratic Party with corruption.
“More than half associate corruption with the Democratic party. Almost a third says both parties share the blame. Republicans pretty much get a pass,” said Mr. Carroll.
But can the tough times Democrats are facing in the Garden State be explained away by the state’s corruption conundrum? Not so, says Virginia.
In one of the many headlines of 2008, Mr. Obama turned Virginia blue by taking 52 percent of the vote to Mr. McCain’s 48 percent; it was the first time a Democrat had won Old Dominion since LBJ in 1964. The news sent shockwaves through the GOP establishment and Democratic operatives declared Virginia had finally come home.
Just under a year later, Virginia voters appear to be willing to turn its governor’s mansion over to a Republican.
Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has opened up a nine-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds, according to a poll released Wednesday by Rasmussen Reports. A month ago the Republican had a slim three-point advantage.
Not unlike New Jersey, there are a number of Virginia specific issues driving the campaign, such as funding transportation costs, but there is another factor that links these two elections together — Mr. Obama.
The president’s approval rating is also taking a hit in Virginia, suggesting his aggressive policy proposals are creating headaches for the state’s Democratic Party.
“What we are seeing now is a direct reaction to Mr. Obama’s policies to expand the government,” Gary Marx, Republican strategist for Century Strategies, said, adding the public is rejecting policies such as health care and cap and trade. Mr. Marx further noted that Virginia’s state elections have long been connected to the pulse inside the Beltway.
“Virginia is unique because almost 50 percent of its voting population is impacted by the DC market,” Mr. Marx said. “National politics dominate in this state.”
The GOP operative argued the outcome of the gubernatorial races will have a national impact and a loss would be undercut the Obama administration in the months to come.
“A loss in both states would be a wakeup call for Democrats,” Mr. Marx said. “The impact will be clear, for after the 2009 elections when [White House Chief of Staff] Rahm Emanuel tells Democrats to jump, the response will no longer be how high?”
Is a loss in New Jersey and Virginia a possibility? If polling trends remain, history says yes.
In 1993, after the election of President Bill Clinton, Republicans Christie Todd Whitman and George Allen defeated Democrats in the gubernatorial races held in New Jersey and Virginia. And, just like in 1993, the health care debate was gripping the nation.
“In effect, the 2009 election will be a referendum on Obama just like the 1993 election was on Clinton,” Mr. Marx said.
And if all of this was not enough to cause Democratic operatives to grab their bottle of TUMS, Rasmussen also has the GOP beating Democrats on the general Congressional ballot in 2010.
Joe Murray can be reached at jmurray@thebulletin.us.
It was, so said the Beltway pundits, the dawn of a new day.
In his win over Republican John McCain, Washington insiders noted the ability of this young Illinois lawmaker to change the dynamic of the U.S. electoral map. While he solidified support in traditionally blue states, Mr. Obama moved his campaign into states that typically leaned red.
By the end of the 2008 election, Mr. Obama had wooed back Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, back into the Democratic fold. But Mr. Obama did not stop there.
In states like Nevada, McCain’s neighbor to the north, North Carolina and Indiana blue inroads were made it red states. As was the same in Virginia.
By November 5, 2008, many had thought a new political dynamic was born. Such a hope, as evidence b y the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Old Dominion, is proving to be false.
If Mr. Obama’s election ushered in a new day, conventional wisdom would suggest Democratic gubernatorial candidates would be comfortably in control; even more so in states Mr. Obama won during the recently held 2008 election. Polling data, however, suggests otherwise.
Take New Jersey, a long time bastion of liberal political strength. Mr. Obama easily won New Jersey in November, earning 57 percent of the vote to Mr. McCain’s 42. The state has long been a Democratic stronghold both nationally and state-wide, but fissures are appearing in the New Jersey’s Democratic foundation.
A new poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University found Mr. Obama’s approval ratings sinking in the Garden State. The 56 percent to 39 percent approval rating, while still respectable, is down from a 61 percent to 33 percent rating last month.
Even more troubling for the president is New Jersey’s Independent voters are split on Mr. Obama’s job performance. Less than half, 48 percent, approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance, while 45 percent disapprove.
“For President Barack Obama, the bloom is fading in the Garden State as his approval rating wilts,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The President still is on the positive side when we ask about his overall job approval and his grades for handling the economy. But the trend - and that’s what you always look at - is heading down.”
Mr. Obama’s souring approval rating is not the only problem facing New Jersey Democrats. Gov. Jon Corzine is trailing U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, the Republican challenger.
In a separate Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, pollsters found Mr. Christie leading Mr. Corzine among likely voters by a margin of 51 percent to 42 percent. The poll also found New Jersey voters, including Democrats, associate the state’s Democratic Party with corruption.
“More than half associate corruption with the Democratic party. Almost a third says both parties share the blame. Republicans pretty much get a pass,” said Mr. Carroll.
But can the tough times Democrats are facing in the Garden State be explained away by the state’s corruption conundrum? Not so, says Virginia.
In one of the many headlines of 2008, Mr. Obama turned Virginia blue by taking 52 percent of the vote to Mr. McCain’s 48 percent; it was the first time a Democrat had won Old Dominion since LBJ in 1964. The news sent shockwaves through the GOP establishment and Democratic operatives declared Virginia had finally come home.
Just under a year later, Virginia voters appear to be willing to turn its governor’s mansion over to a Republican.
Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has opened up a nine-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds, according to a poll released Wednesday by Rasmussen Reports. A month ago the Republican had a slim three-point advantage.
Not unlike New Jersey, there are a number of Virginia specific issues driving the campaign, such as funding transportation costs, but there is another factor that links these two elections together — Mr. Obama.
The president’s approval rating is also taking a hit in Virginia, suggesting his aggressive policy proposals are creating headaches for the state’s Democratic Party.
“What we are seeing now is a direct reaction to Mr. Obama’s policies to expand the government,” Gary Marx, Republican strategist for Century Strategies, said, adding the public is rejecting policies such as health care and cap and trade. Mr. Marx further noted that Virginia’s state elections have long been connected to the pulse inside the Beltway.
“Virginia is unique because almost 50 percent of its voting population is impacted by the DC market,” Mr. Marx said. “National politics dominate in this state.”
The GOP operative argued the outcome of the gubernatorial races will have a national impact and a loss would be undercut the Obama administration in the months to come.
“A loss in both states would be a wakeup call for Democrats,” Mr. Marx said. “The impact will be clear, for after the 2009 elections when [White House Chief of Staff] Rahm Emanuel tells Democrats to jump, the response will no longer be how high?”
Is a loss in New Jersey and Virginia a possibility? If polling trends remain, history says yes.
In 1993, after the election of President Bill Clinton, Republicans Christie Todd Whitman and George Allen defeated Democrats in the gubernatorial races held in New Jersey and Virginia. And, just like in 1993, the health care debate was gripping the nation.
“In effect, the 2009 election will be a referendum on Obama just like the 1993 election was on Clinton,” Mr. Marx said.
And if all of this was not enough to cause Democratic operatives to grab their bottle of TUMS, Rasmussen also has the GOP beating Democrats on the general Congressional ballot in 2010.
Joe Murray can be reached at jmurray@thebulletin.us.
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