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Ukraine Elections Hold Key To East-West Balance
By WES RODGERS, For The Bulletin
This month’s Ukraine election is the most important election for the key east European country since its declaration of freedom and breakaway from the former Soviet Union on Aug. 24th, 1991. This is even truer than the pro West Orange Revolution of 2004-2005 which gained worldwide recognition and placed Viktor Yushchenko into power as the man to finally connect the Ukraine and its eastern allies, actively away from Russian influence and directly joined with traditionally free Europe and, of course, strongly aligned with the leader in the West, the United States.
Many countries worldwide know that the country of Ukraine holds the key to the balance of power between the East and West. However, along the way to joining the West, NATO and the European Union, something very wrong happened. There are very definite reasons why.
What Went Wrong And Why Yushchenko Was Defeated
Political experts and political science analysts have asked what went wrong and why President Yushchenko and his Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko did not accomplish the mandate of the people and, thus, the link between East and West was never totally fulfilled. However, close analysis reveals why some of the goals of President Yushchenko to link the Ukraine and West failed.
Trouble was in the making as far back as New Years Eve 1999 when then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who did little for Russia’s economy, military presence and civil liberties appointed an unknown man named Vladimir Putin to become president. At the time, Mr. Putin was working with the mayor of St. Petersburg, but had the background serving as chief of Russia’s worldwide famous KGB intelligence service and the FSB for internal security, which gave him the proper mindset to forge the Russian Federation back on the map as a world power.
So, after an assassination attempt by dioxin poisoning, President Yushchenko kept marching as a true wounded hero along with his running mate (and Prime Minister) Julia Tymoshenko, all the way to the nations highest office knowing that his defeated opponent was highly backed by Russia’s Kremlin inner circle and then-President Putin. Mr. Putin had a strong hold of Russia’s intelligence service, which had infiltrated the Ukraine parliament where it was going to make life difficult for Mr. Yushchenko.
Mr. Yushchenko had strong hidden opposition from many Ukraine citizens of Russian ancestry who, although wanting more independence from what is now the Russian Federation did not want a total shift to western European and U.S. influence, and the key element, strong opposition in the Verkhovna Rada, (Ukraine Parliament), from many “former Soviet hardliners” who had been carefully influenced by Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin elite to fight most all of Mr. Yushchenko’s efforts for the Ukraine to join NATO, become an avid member of the European Union, and also form almost a total break from Russia as if it never existed and Putin and his agents quickly went to work to make sure Russia was not going to be humiliated in addition to losing the Orange Revolution.
The Ukraine, of all the fifteen breakaway republics from the Soviet Union, was the crown jewel, being the strongest, most economically prolific, technologically advanced breakaway republic and is strategically located along the Black Sea where the Russian 7th Fleet still sits due to a lease agreement with Ukraine.
But when Russia invaded Ukraine’s friend and ally Georgia in 2008, it caused Russia and Ukraine to become enemies again as Ukraine President Yushchenko strongly criticized Russia, threatened to sink Russian ships based at Sevastapol and in diplomatic and economic ways chastised Russia. As a result, Mr. Yushchenko lost backing from many key Ukraine insiders, who sensed it was not politically correct to come down so hard on what was proving to be a strong re-emerging Russia with Vladimir Putin as its president, now Prime Minister. There was additional tension due to the Russian oil pipeline which runs directly thru the Ukraine to western Europe as western Europe gets almost 40 percent of its oil from Russia.
And, European Union members did not allow Ukraine to join the E.U. because the Ukraine posed an economic threat of competition, especially in metal exports and produce, and talented but inexpensive, skilled technological labor and E.U. membership would make Ukraine the largest country geographically in its union and NATO membership.
Many European members have become afraid of Russia with Mr. Putin in charge because they’ve enjoyed peace since the Soviet breakup. Thus, with all these obstacles, the mandate of the Orange Revolution for the people was not, and still has not, been met, and many disillusioned Ukrainians, and now the runoff election between Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovich have surfaced.
Just this past week, former Ukraine President Leonid Kuchma who served as president from 1994 until Mr. Yushchenko took over in 2005 strongly criticized the in-fighting between Mr. Yushchenko and his Prime Minister Tymoshenko, as to who had the most power. He also criticized the Ukraine parliament for constant faction fighting and also for not being more diplomatic with Russia even though the Ukraine had broken away and formed its own identity. Mr. Kuchma speaking on Radio Free Europe added Ukraine needs new faces in the political arena.
The former president was responsible for stabilizing the Ukraine economy after the Soviet breakaway.
Tymoshenko-Yanukovich, Bitter Rivals
Viktor Yanukovich and his Regions Party backed by Russia’s Vladimir Putin, won the first round, gaining approximately 35 percent of the vote compared with Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko and her Bloc Party who gained about 25 percent. She still stands a good chance to upset Mr. Yanukovich in this runoff as either candidate must get at least 50 percent of the vote to be declared the winner. This election will be close. It is also likely the vote may be contested after the election - as it is the Ukrainian way.
Viktor Yanukovich from eastern Ukraine, near Donetsk Oblast (province) region. He has strong backing from Mr. Putin and Russian leaders and is promoting stronger ties with Russia (and less with the European Union and no NATO relationship) and wants Ukrainians to speak only Russian and not Ukraine, which is not popular with Ukrainians.
Julia Tymoshenko, current Ukrainian Prime Minister, is from Dnepropetrosk in central Ukraine. She is very convincing and resonates well with a broad spectrum of Ukraine people. (She is an oil baroness and Mr. Yanukovich is a former electrical worker and also served as Ukraine Prime Minister from 2002 to 2004.)
This past week he refused to go on TV to debate Ms. Tymoshenko because he is not a good speaker and he knows this is Ms. Tymoshenko’s strength, as she is extremely the populist, and she can be very convincing.
Mr. Yanukovich resonates with Russian voters and those who view a strong connection with the west as a betrayal to east European and Russo-Ukraine ancestry and relates to many blue-collar workers. Especially in eastern Ukraine but basically will represent many Russian interests.
Ms. Tymoshenko has also been known to work out good deals especially on oil with Vladimir Putin and Russia. In fact, Mr. Putin admits he enjoys working deals with Ms. Tymoshenko. She is smart and voters know she is working for Ukraine interests and not Russian, something Mr. Yushchenko was not able to do with Russia and something Mr. Yanukovich seems disinclined to do. In fact, on November 19, 2009, Ms. Tymoshenko worked out a solid gas agreement with Mr. Putin in Yalta, which also impacted twenty other European countries as they depend on Russian gas, but travels thru the Ukraine pipeline to Western Europe, but Ukraine voters can live with this as Ukraine benefits.
Ms. Tymoshenko’s best shot now is to garner the 13 percent of voters who voted for former Ukraine Economic Minister Sergei Tigipko and the 7 percent received by Ukraine banker Arseniy Yatseniuk and rural voters. This is how a major upset can take place.
Remember, in the runoff, there are more voters for only two candidates as compared to the
eighteen in the first round.
Either candidate will be much different than Orange Revolution winner Yushchenko and there has not been much support this time from the U.S., Canada or Great Britain and Ukraine politicians realize as former President Kuchma said, although Ukraine broke away, it does not mean deals can’t be made and dialogue always makes for good diplomacy. So, you will now see a centralized Ukraine with European countries for some time, and no NATO membership, as both candidates are willing to allow Russia to maintain their 7th Fleet in Sevastapol until at least 2017 or years later or until another president is elected as the Ukraine continues to develop its own identity of democracy.
With ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S. to ratify the START Treaty for nuclear arms reductions, it is very important for Ukraine voters to realize the ramifications of electing a pro-Russian president in a country, which is the best ICBM missile manufacturer in Europe with Russia as its neighbor.
Closer Relationship With Russia
The Ukraine was denied a Membership Action Plan initiative by NATO members despite a hard push by George Bush and his administration to be granted membership and the facts are real that the Ukraine has fought with the United States in every major campaign against terrorism and recently offered to fight in another campaign with NATO.
There are about 36.6 million registered voters in Ukraine and over 380 thousand registered worldwide with many residing in the Philadelphia area.
Everything said, the Orange Revolution was not a failure, but, instead the first step in its short independent history after decades of Soviet domination and Ukrainians are showing the world that it has resilience and can stand up to the ever re-emerging Russian Federation and that makes many European countries, some in the Mid East and the United States and Canada very happy for now and Ukraine and Russia can peacefully co-exist.
Many countries worldwide know that the country of Ukraine holds the key to the balance of power between the East and West. However, along the way to joining the West, NATO and the European Union, something very wrong happened. There are very definite reasons why.
What Went Wrong And Why Yushchenko Was Defeated
Political experts and political science analysts have asked what went wrong and why President Yushchenko and his Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko did not accomplish the mandate of the people and, thus, the link between East and West was never totally fulfilled. However, close analysis reveals why some of the goals of President Yushchenko to link the Ukraine and West failed.
Trouble was in the making as far back as New Years Eve 1999 when then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who did little for Russia’s economy, military presence and civil liberties appointed an unknown man named Vladimir Putin to become president. At the time, Mr. Putin was working with the mayor of St. Petersburg, but had the background serving as chief of Russia’s worldwide famous KGB intelligence service and the FSB for internal security, which gave him the proper mindset to forge the Russian Federation back on the map as a world power.
So, after an assassination attempt by dioxin poisoning, President Yushchenko kept marching as a true wounded hero along with his running mate (and Prime Minister) Julia Tymoshenko, all the way to the nations highest office knowing that his defeated opponent was highly backed by Russia’s Kremlin inner circle and then-President Putin. Mr. Putin had a strong hold of Russia’s intelligence service, which had infiltrated the Ukraine parliament where it was going to make life difficult for Mr. Yushchenko.
Mr. Yushchenko had strong hidden opposition from many Ukraine citizens of Russian ancestry who, although wanting more independence from what is now the Russian Federation did not want a total shift to western European and U.S. influence, and the key element, strong opposition in the Verkhovna Rada, (Ukraine Parliament), from many “former Soviet hardliners” who had been carefully influenced by Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin elite to fight most all of Mr. Yushchenko’s efforts for the Ukraine to join NATO, become an avid member of the European Union, and also form almost a total break from Russia as if it never existed and Putin and his agents quickly went to work to make sure Russia was not going to be humiliated in addition to losing the Orange Revolution.
The Ukraine, of all the fifteen breakaway republics from the Soviet Union, was the crown jewel, being the strongest, most economically prolific, technologically advanced breakaway republic and is strategically located along the Black Sea where the Russian 7th Fleet still sits due to a lease agreement with Ukraine.
But when Russia invaded Ukraine’s friend and ally Georgia in 2008, it caused Russia and Ukraine to become enemies again as Ukraine President Yushchenko strongly criticized Russia, threatened to sink Russian ships based at Sevastapol and in diplomatic and economic ways chastised Russia. As a result, Mr. Yushchenko lost backing from many key Ukraine insiders, who sensed it was not politically correct to come down so hard on what was proving to be a strong re-emerging Russia with Vladimir Putin as its president, now Prime Minister. There was additional tension due to the Russian oil pipeline which runs directly thru the Ukraine to western Europe as western Europe gets almost 40 percent of its oil from Russia.
And, European Union members did not allow Ukraine to join the E.U. because the Ukraine posed an economic threat of competition, especially in metal exports and produce, and talented but inexpensive, skilled technological labor and E.U. membership would make Ukraine the largest country geographically in its union and NATO membership.
Many European members have become afraid of Russia with Mr. Putin in charge because they’ve enjoyed peace since the Soviet breakup. Thus, with all these obstacles, the mandate of the Orange Revolution for the people was not, and still has not, been met, and many disillusioned Ukrainians, and now the runoff election between Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Yanukovich have surfaced.
Just this past week, former Ukraine President Leonid Kuchma who served as president from 1994 until Mr. Yushchenko took over in 2005 strongly criticized the in-fighting between Mr. Yushchenko and his Prime Minister Tymoshenko, as to who had the most power. He also criticized the Ukraine parliament for constant faction fighting and also for not being more diplomatic with Russia even though the Ukraine had broken away and formed its own identity. Mr. Kuchma speaking on Radio Free Europe added Ukraine needs new faces in the political arena.
The former president was responsible for stabilizing the Ukraine economy after the Soviet breakaway.
Tymoshenko-Yanukovich, Bitter Rivals
Viktor Yanukovich and his Regions Party backed by Russia’s Vladimir Putin, won the first round, gaining approximately 35 percent of the vote compared with Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko and her Bloc Party who gained about 25 percent. She still stands a good chance to upset Mr. Yanukovich in this runoff as either candidate must get at least 50 percent of the vote to be declared the winner. This election will be close. It is also likely the vote may be contested after the election - as it is the Ukrainian way.
Viktor Yanukovich from eastern Ukraine, near Donetsk Oblast (province) region. He has strong backing from Mr. Putin and Russian leaders and is promoting stronger ties with Russia (and less with the European Union and no NATO relationship) and wants Ukrainians to speak only Russian and not Ukraine, which is not popular with Ukrainians.
Julia Tymoshenko, current Ukrainian Prime Minister, is from Dnepropetrosk in central Ukraine. She is very convincing and resonates well with a broad spectrum of Ukraine people. (She is an oil baroness and Mr. Yanukovich is a former electrical worker and also served as Ukraine Prime Minister from 2002 to 2004.)
This past week he refused to go on TV to debate Ms. Tymoshenko because he is not a good speaker and he knows this is Ms. Tymoshenko’s strength, as she is extremely the populist, and she can be very convincing.
Mr. Yanukovich resonates with Russian voters and those who view a strong connection with the west as a betrayal to east European and Russo-Ukraine ancestry and relates to many blue-collar workers. Especially in eastern Ukraine but basically will represent many Russian interests.
Ms. Tymoshenko has also been known to work out good deals especially on oil with Vladimir Putin and Russia. In fact, Mr. Putin admits he enjoys working deals with Ms. Tymoshenko. She is smart and voters know she is working for Ukraine interests and not Russian, something Mr. Yushchenko was not able to do with Russia and something Mr. Yanukovich seems disinclined to do. In fact, on November 19, 2009, Ms. Tymoshenko worked out a solid gas agreement with Mr. Putin in Yalta, which also impacted twenty other European countries as they depend on Russian gas, but travels thru the Ukraine pipeline to Western Europe, but Ukraine voters can live with this as Ukraine benefits.
Ms. Tymoshenko’s best shot now is to garner the 13 percent of voters who voted for former Ukraine Economic Minister Sergei Tigipko and the 7 percent received by Ukraine banker Arseniy Yatseniuk and rural voters. This is how a major upset can take place.
Remember, in the runoff, there are more voters for only two candidates as compared to the
eighteen in the first round.
Either candidate will be much different than Orange Revolution winner Yushchenko and there has not been much support this time from the U.S., Canada or Great Britain and Ukraine politicians realize as former President Kuchma said, although Ukraine broke away, it does not mean deals can’t be made and dialogue always makes for good diplomacy. So, you will now see a centralized Ukraine with European countries for some time, and no NATO membership, as both candidates are willing to allow Russia to maintain their 7th Fleet in Sevastapol until at least 2017 or years later or until another president is elected as the Ukraine continues to develop its own identity of democracy.
With ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S. to ratify the START Treaty for nuclear arms reductions, it is very important for Ukraine voters to realize the ramifications of electing a pro-Russian president in a country, which is the best ICBM missile manufacturer in Europe with Russia as its neighbor.
Closer Relationship With Russia
The Ukraine was denied a Membership Action Plan initiative by NATO members despite a hard push by George Bush and his administration to be granted membership and the facts are real that the Ukraine has fought with the United States in every major campaign against terrorism and recently offered to fight in another campaign with NATO.
There are about 36.6 million registered voters in Ukraine and over 380 thousand registered worldwide with many residing in the Philadelphia area.
Everything said, the Orange Revolution was not a failure, but, instead the first step in its short independent history after decades of Soviet domination and Ukrainians are showing the world that it has resilience and can stand up to the ever re-emerging Russian Federation and that makes many European countries, some in the Mid East and the United States and Canada very happy for now and Ukraine and Russia can peacefully co-exist.
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